Most Washington employers will not look at their 2027 unemployment tax rate until the notice arrives in December. By then the budget is done. The numbers that drive that notice are already published — and they all move the same direction.
Budget season starts in the next few weeks. Here is what to put in the model.
What happened
Employment Security Department figures put Washington’s 2025 average annual wage at $99,810, up 4.9% from 2024, with the average weekly wage rising to $1,919 from $1,830. Total earnings grew 4.7%, roughly $15.7 billion — while covered employment fell 0.2%, to 3,537,651 workers from 3,544,556.
That average wage is the input that resets several employer numbers:
- UI taxable wage base rises to $82,000 per employee on January 1, 2027, from $78,200 in 2026 — a jump of $3,800 per employee in taxable wages.
- PFML maximum weekly benefit rises to $1,727 on January 1, 2027, from $1,647.
- On the benefit side, effective July 5, 2026, the maximum weekly UI benefit went to $1,208 (up $56) and the minimum to $383 (up $17).
Then there is the trust fund. ESD’s Unemployment Insurance Trust Fund Forecast projects the social tax rising to about 0.66% in 2027, trending back toward 0.6% by 2029 — and, more consequentially, it anticipates a solvency tax of up to two-tenths of one percent (0.20%) in 2027, 2028 and 2029. The trigger is mechanical: the fund is forecast to fall to roughly 7.1 months of benefits by September 2026 and 6.3 months in 2027, and dropping below seven months of benefits activates a surcharge of up to 0.2% intended to rebuild the fund toward nine months. Unlike experience rating, a solvency surcharge is applied equally across all employers — a clean record does not exempt you.
For reference, 2026 caps the experience-rating tax at 5.4% and the social tax at 1.22%, with the combined experience-and-social cap at 6%, plus the 0.02%–0.03% employment administration fund and federal FUTA at 0.6% on the first $7,000.
Why it matters
Note what is happening underneath these numbers. Average wages rose 4.9% while covered employment fell 0.2%. Washington is paying more to slightly fewer people — which is precisely the picture ESD’s own Q2 labor market report described as a “low hire / low fire” market, with labor force participation at 62.3% in June, the lowest since November 1976.
Rising cost per employee in a market where the employee pool is shrinking is not a growth problem you can hire your way out of. It is a margin problem you have to price for.
What this means for Washington employers
Four moves, and none of them require waiting for the December rate notice:
1. Rebuild your fully-loaded cost of an employee for 2027, not 2026. Take gross wage, then layer FICA, UI on the first $82,000 (not $78,200), the PFML premium, WA Cares, and workers’ comp. For anyone earning above the old base, you are now paying UI on an additional $3,800 of wages. Multiply by headcount before you tell yourself it is immaterial.
2. Model the solvency tax as a real line, flagged as a forecast. Up to 0.2% applied to all employers on the taxable wage base is roughly $164 per employee at the $82,000 ceiling. It is a forecast, not a bill — but a forecast that appears in three consecutive years is a planning assumption, not a tail risk. Build it in and label it.
3. Price 2027 contracts off the new stack. If you quote annual service agreements or fixed-scope work into next year, the labor component of those quotes should carry the 2027 wage base and the higher social tax. Quotes written this fall are the last chance to recover this before it hits.
4. Keep the payroll liability accounts separated. UI, PFML and WA Cares each move on their own schedule and each has its own ceiling. Lumping them into one “payroll taxes payable” account is how a rate change quietly becomes an underpayment. This matters more now that ESD’s Paid Leave program began applying penalties to past-due reports and interest on overdue premium balances on August 1, 2026 — with the Q3 report due October 31.
The bottom line
The 2027 numbers are not a surprise waiting in a December envelope; three of the four are already published, and the fourth is forecast in ESD’s own trust fund report. Put $82,000, a 0.66% social tax and a 0.2% solvency surcharge into the model now, while you can still price for them.
